Description
Definition. This chart presents the on-chain cost basis (realized price) of the Bitcoin market and of its Long- and Short-Term Holder cohorts, alongside spot price (black). Realized Price reflects the aggregate price when each coin was last spent on-chain; using Short- and Long-Term Holder heuristics, we can calculate the realized price (estimated average acquisition price) for each investor cohort.
🟠The Realized Price reflects the average on-chain acquisition price for the entire coin supply.
🔴 Short-Term Holder Realized Price reflects the average on-chain acquisition price for coins held outside exchange reserves, which were moved within the last 155-days. These reflect the most probable coins to be spent on any given day.
🔵 Long-Term Holder Realized Price reflects the average on-chain acquisition price for coins held outside exchange reserves, which have not moved within the last 155-days. These reflect the least probable coins to be spent on any given day.
🟪 Periods where spot price falls below all cost basis models are highlighted as purple columns.
Technical. The cohort cost bases are derived from the cohort MVRV ratios:
STH Realized Price = Spot Price / STH-MVRVLTH Realized Price = Spot Price / LTH-MVRV
where the 155-day threshold separates the two cohorts. The purple highlight fires only when spot trades below all three models simultaneously.
Interpretation. Periods where spot price falls below all cost basis models typically occur in deep bear markets where the average investor, irrespective of hold time, is holding an unrealized loss. The cost basis for these cohorts tend to separate during macro uptrends as coins are revalued to higher prices. Conversely, convergence tends to occur during bear markets as the investor base consolidates to higher conviction, longer-term investors.
Notes. Built from Realized Price, LTH-MVRV and STH-MVRV. The rate of change of these models is charted in Long/Short-Term On-chain Cost Basis (7-day Rate of Change); see also the single-cohort views Long-Term Holder and Short-Term Holder Realized Price and MVRV.