Definition. This chart presents Long-Term Holder variants of two classic and widely recognized on-chain metrics: the Realized Price, and its derivative the MVRV Ratio. The LTH cost basis is shown in blue against spot price (black), with the LTH-MVRV plotted as columns colored by cohort profitability (orange in profit, blue in loss).

• LTH Realized Price is the average price of the Long-Term Holder BTC supply, valued at the day each coin last transacted on-chain. This is often considered the 'on-chain cost basis' of this cohort.

• LTH MVRV Ratio is the ratio between the market value (MV, spot price) and the Realized value (RV, realized price) for the Long-Term Holder cohort. This allows for a visualization of Bitcoin market cycles, and the unrealized profitability of this cohort.

Technical. The cohort covers coins that have not moved in over 155 days, held outside exchange reserves:

• LTH Realized Price = Spot Price / LTH-MVRV
• Columns plot the LTH-MVRV value, orange when >= 1 (in profit) and blue when < 1 (in loss)

Interpretation. MVRV is an oscillator measuring the average Unrealized Profit/Loss multiple held by Bitcoin Long-Term Holders, calculated as Avg Unrealized PnL = MVRV - 1:

• MVRV value of 2.0 means the current price is 2x the cohort avg cost basis (LTH BTC holder is up 2x).

• MVRV value of 1.0 means the current price is equal to the cohort avg cost basis (LTH BTC holder is at break-even).

• MVRV value of 0.85 means the current price is -15% below the cohort avg cost basis (LTH BTC holder is underwater by -15%).

💡 Hint: Extreme MVRV values to the upside, and downside can help to identify periods where the market is overheated, or undervalued, and where investor profitability has reached a large deviation from the mean (Realized Price). LTH-MVRV falling below 1.0 has historically been rare, occurring in deep bear markets when even the highest-conviction cohort holds an unrealized loss.

Notes. Built from LTH-MVRV and Realized Price. See the Short-Term Holder counterpart, the combined Long/Short-Term On-chain Cost Basis, and the aggregate Realized Price and MVRV.