Definition. This chart measures the 7-day percent change in the Realized Price for various on-chain cohorts, helping to identify periods where the aggregate cost basis has increased, or decreased by a significant amount over a short period of time. Realized Price reflects the aggregate price when each coin was last spent on-chain; using Short- and Long-Term Holder heuristics, we can calculate the realized price (estimated average acquisition price) for each investor cohort.

• 🟠 The Realized Price reflects the average on-chain acquisition price for the entire coin supply.

• 🔴 Short-Term Holder Realized Price reflects the average on-chain acquisition price for coins held outside exchange reserves, which were moved within the last 155-days. These reflect the most probable coins to be spent on any given day.

• 🔵 Long-Term Holder Realized Price reflects the average on-chain acquisition price for coins held outside exchange reserves, which have not moved within the last 155-days. These reflect the least probable coins to be spent on any given day.

Technical. Each trace is percent_change(Cost Basis, 7) for its cohort — STH (red columns), aggregate Realized Price (orange columns) and LTH (blue line) — with the cohort cost bases derived as Spot Price / Cohort MVRV. Reference guide lines are drawn at +4%, +8% and -4%. The upper panel shows spot price with the three cost basis models for context.

Interpretation. Sharp increases in a cohort's cost basis indicate large volumes of coins changing hands at elevated prices — behavior characteristic of aggressive demand absorbing supply, but also of top formation when it occurs after extended rallies. Sharp decreases indicate coins being spent at a loss and the cost basis being marked down, typical of capitulation events. The Short-Term Holder cost basis is the most reactive of the three and typically leads; moves in the aggregate and LTH models beyond the ±4% guide levels are rarer and mark historically significant repricing events.

Notes. The underlying models are charted in Long/Short-Term On-chain Cost Basis. Built from Realized Price, LTH-MVRV and STH-MVRV.