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Realized Price reflects the aggregate price when each coin was last spent on-chain. Using Young (< 6m) and Old (> 6m) Supply heuristics, we can calculate the realized price (estimated average acquisition price) for each investor cohort.

  • 🟠 The Realized Price reflects the average on-chain acquisition price for the entire coin supply.

  • 🔴 Young Supply Realized Price reflects an estimation of the average on-chain acquisition price for coins which were moved within the last 6-months. A 120D-EMA is used which provides the closest correlation and approximation to of Short-Term Holder behavior.

  • 🔵 Old Supply Realized Price reflects the average on-chain acquisition price for coins which have not moved in the last 6-months.

  • 🟪 Periods where spot price falls below all cost basis models typically occur in deep bear markets where the average investor, irrespective of hold time, is holding an unrealized loss.

Note: The cost basis for these cohorts tend to separate during macro uptrends as coins are revalued to higher prices. Conversely, convergence tends to occur during bear markets as the investor base consolidates to higher conviction, longer-term investors.

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