Definition. This chart presents an approximation of the Short-Term Holder MVRV, and thus an estimate of the STH Realized Price, for the Young Supply cohort (coins moved within the last 6 months). It shows the 120-day EMA of price 🔴 as an approximation of the Short-Term Holder Realized Price, and the resulting 120D-EMA MVRV 🟠 as an approximation of the Short-Term Holder MVRV, alongside spot price (dark grey).

Technical. The approximation is developed based on an observation and study showing that the 120-day EMA of price has a relatively high correlation to the STH Realized Price:

• Young Supply Realized Price (approx.) = ema(Price, 120)
• Young Supply MVRV (approx.) = Price / ema(Price, 120)

Interpretation. The Young Supply cohort captures recent buyers, whose cost basis sits close to prevailing prices and whose behavior is comparatively price-sensitive. When the approximated MVRV trades above 1, the average recent buyer is in profit — a condition that has typically supported uptrend continuation, with the cost basis level itself often acting as support in bull markets. Values below 1 put recent buyers underwater, historically increasing the odds of capitulation-driven selling and marking corrective or bearish phases. Being an EMA-based approximation, the trace reacts smoothly and can diverge from the true STH Realized Price during rapid regime shifts.

Notes. For the exact cohort metrics, see the native Short-Term Holder MVRV and the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis chart. Companion charts: Old Supply Realized Price and MVRV and the combined view Old/Young Supply Cost Basis.