Definition. Realized Price reflects the aggregate price when each coin was last spent on-chain. Using Young (< 6m) and Old (> 6m) supply heuristics, this chart calculates the realized price (estimated average acquisition price) for each investor cohort: the Realized Price 🟠 for the entire coin supply, the Young Supply Realized Price 🔴, the Old Supply Realized Price 🔵, and a shaded region 🟪 marking periods where spot price falls below all cost basis models. Spot price is shown in black.

Technical. The cohort models are constructed as follows:

• 🟠 Realized Price — the native metric, covering the entire supply.
• 🔴 Young Supply Realized Price = ema(Price, 120) — an estimation for coins moved within the last 6 months; the 120D-EMA provides the closest correlation and approximation to Short-Term Holder behavior.
• 🔵 Old Supply Realized Price = cumsum(daily increase in Old Supply x Price 180 days ago) / Old Supply — the average on-chain acquisition price for coins which have not moved in the last 6 months.
• 🟪 Highlighted where spot trades below all three models simultaneously.

Interpretation. Periods where spot price falls below all cost basis models typically occur in deep bear markets, where the average investor, irrespective of hold time, is holding an unrealized loss. The cost bases for these cohorts tend to separate during macro uptrends as coins are revalued to higher prices; conversely, convergence tends to occur during bear markets as the investor base consolidates towards higher conviction, longer-term investors. The spread between the Young and Old cost bases therefore acts as a gauge of how far the current cycle has revalued recent capital relative to dormant capital.

Notes. Built from Realized Price, Supply Last Active 1+ Years Ago and Supply Last Active 6m-12m. The individual cohort views are charted in Old Supply Realized Price and MVRV and Young Supply Realized Price and MVRV.