Definition. NVT Price values the Bitcoin network using the transaction volume settled by the blockchain — in this variant, using entity-adjusted volume, which filters out transfers between addresses belonging to the same entity. The chart shows the fast 30-day NVT Price (dark blue), the slow 90-day NVT Price (light blue), and the 90-day NVT Premium — red columns where price trades above the model, green where below — alongside spot price (grey).

Technical. NVT Ratio is the ratio of market cap to on-chain volume, analogous to the PE Ratio for the network. NVT Cap multiplies on-chain volume by the 2-year median of the NVT Ratio, and is converted to NVT Price by dividing by the coin supply:

• NVT Price = median(NVT Ratio, 2y) x median(Entity-Adjusted Volume, w) / Circulating Supply, with w = 30d (fast, dark blue) and w = 90d (slow, light blue)
• NVT Premium = Price / NVT Price 90-day - 1 — the premium (red) or discount (green) of the market price relative to the 90-day model, with the neutral level marked in grey

Interpretation. NVT Price can generally be considered a 'fair value model', seeking to reflect the fundamental valuation of the network based on its utility as a settlement layer. Entity-adjustment removes internal shuffling (e.g. exchange wallet management and change outputs), so this variant grounds the valuation in a cleaner estimate of genuine economic throughput — typically producing a more conservative fair value than the change-adjusted variant. A rising NVT Premium indicates the market pricing an increasing premium over economic throughput, characteristic of speculative phases; a discount to NVT Price has historically coincided with bear market lows.

Notes. Coined by Willy Woo, 2021 — see the original NVT Price Model thread. Built from Entity-Adjusted Transfer Volume and Circulating Supply; see also the underlying Entity-Adjusted NVT ratio. Variants: the standard NVT Price Model and the Exchange Inflow NVT Price Model.