Definition. This variant of the NVT Price model values the Bitcoin network using the volume flowing into exchanges, rather than total on-chain volume. The chart shows the fast 30-day NVT Price (dark blue), the slow 90-day NVT Price (light blue), and the 90-day NVT Premium plotted as columns — red where price trades above the model, green where below — alongside spot price (grey).

Technical. NVT Ratio is the ratio of market cap to on-chain volume, analogous to the PE Ratio for the network. NVT Cap multiplies volume by the 2-year median of the NVT Ratio, converted to NVT Price by dividing by coin supply — here with exchange inflow volume as the throughput measure:

• NVT Price = median(NVT Ratio, 2y) x median(Exchange Inflow Volume, w) / Circulating Supply, with w = 30d (fast, dark blue) and w = 90d (slow, light blue)
• NVT Premium = Price / NVT Price 90-day - 1, split into positive (red) and negative (green) columns, with the neutral level marked in grey

Interpretation. Exchange inflows proxy the supply of coins being made liquid and available for sale, so this model anchors valuation to trading-related throughput specifically. NVT Price can generally be considered a 'fair value model'; a positive premium (price above the model) indicates the market is pricing a premium over exchange-bound activity, characteristic of speculative phases, while a persistent negative premium indicates price trading at a discount to liquidity-weighted throughput, conditions historically associated with market lows.

Notes. Coined by Willy Woo, 2021 — see the original NVT Price Model thread. Built from Exchange Inflow Volume and Circulating Supply; see also the underlying NVT Ratio and NVT Signal. Variants: the standard NVT Price Model and NVT Price (Entity-Adjusted).