Definition. NVT Price values the Bitcoin network using the transaction volume settled by the blockchain. The chart shows the fast 30-day NVT Price (dark blue), the slow 90-day NVT Price (light blue), and the 90-day NVT Premium — red columns where price trades above the model, green where below — alongside spot price (grey).

Technical. NVT Ratio is the ratio of market cap to on-chain volume, which can be considered analogous to the PE Ratio for the network. NVT Cap is calculated by multiplying on-chain volume by the 2-year median of the NVT Ratio, and is converted to NVT Price by dividing by the coin supply:

• NVT Price = median(NVT Ratio, 2y) x median(On-chain Volume, w) / Circulating Supply, with w = 30d (fast, dark blue) and w = 90d (slow, light blue)
• NVT Premium = Price / NVT Price 90-day - 1 — the premium (red) or discount (green) of the market price relative to the fundamental valuation estimated by the 90-day model, with the neutral level marked in grey

On-chain volume uses the change-adjusted transfer volume.

Interpretation. NVT Price can generally be considered a 'fair value model', seeking to reflect the fundamental valuation of the network based on its utility as a settlement layer. Price trading persistently above the NVT Price band — a rising NVT Premium — indicates the market is pricing in a growing premium over settled economic throughput, characteristic of speculative phases; price falling below it indicates the market is valued at a discount to its on-chain utility, conditions historically associated with bear market lows. The 30-day model reacts faster to throughput changes, while the 90-day model provides the smoother baseline.

Notes. Coined by Willy Woo, 2021 — see the original NVT Price Model thread. Built from Change-Adjusted Transfer Volume, Circulating Supply and the NVT Ratio concept; see also the smoothed NVT Signal. Variants: NVT Price (Entity-Adjusted) and the Exchange Inflow NVT Price Model.