Description
Definition. This chart shows the rolling yearly sum of Realized Profits and Losses in USD denomination, in three traces: 🟩 Rolling Yearly Sum of Realized Profits [USD], 🟥 Rolling Yearly Sum of Realized Losses [USD] (displayed as negative), and 🟣 the proportion of peak yearly Realized Profit 'given back' as Realized Losses. Realized Profits occur where a coin is spent at a price higher than the original acquisition price (and vice-versa for Realized Losses).
Technical. The traces are constructed as:
Yearly Realized Profit = sum(Realized Profit, 365)🟩Yearly Realized Loss = -1 x sum(Realized Loss, 365)🟥Proportion Given Back = Yearly Realized Loss / cummax(Yearly Realized Profit, 4yr)🟣
Interpretation. Aggregating over a full year smooths out daily noise and frames profit-taking and loss-taking at the scale of whole market phases. Yearly realized profit expands through bull markets and peaks as the cycle tops out, while the yearly loss series builds through bear phases as underwater coins are progressively surrendered. The give-back ratio expresses those bear-market losses relative to the cycle's peak profit-taking: readings approaching 1.0 mean the market has realized losses on a par with the largest profits harvested that cycle — historically a hallmark of deep, late-stage bear markets — while low readings indicate profit-dominant regimes.
Notes. Built from Realized Profit and Realized Loss. The realized-cap-normalized counterpart is Yearly Realized Profit/Loss (Relative); the daily view is Realized Profit and Loss [USD].