Definition. This chart projects a set of characteristic MVRV levels into the price domain, producing pricing bands which typically describe the extremes of market cycles: 0.8 🔵, 1.0 🟢, 2.4 🟠 and 3.2 🔴, each multiplied by the Realized Price and plotted alongside spot price (grey).

Technical. Each band maps a fixed MVRV value onto a price level:

• Band = MVRV level x Realized Price

Since MVRV = Price / Realized Price, each band marks the price at which the market as a whole would carry that multiple of average unrealized profit or loss. The frequency with which these levels have been breached (calibrated on Bitcoin's trading history) is:

• 🔵 Extreme Lows: MVRV has been below 0.8 for around 5% of trading days.
• 🟢 Getting Low: MVRV has been below 1.0 for around 15% of trading days.
• 🟠 Getting High: MVRV has been above 2.4 for around 20% of trading days.
• 🔴 Extremely High: MVRV has been above 3.2 for around 6% of trading days.

Interpretation. These bands allow us to estimate price levels where the market would reach an extreme unrealized profit (high values) or unrealized loss (low values). Reaching these prices may increase the likelihood that investor behavior is triggered (like profit taking, or capitulation), which ultimately is what establishes the cycle top/bottom. Because the bands scale with the Realized Price, they adjust as capital flows revalue the supply, rather than being fixed price targets.

Notes. For full details on the derivation of these models, please refer to our report Mastering MVRV. The number of trading days spent above/below these levels is modelled in MVRV Days Above/Below. Built from MVRV and Realized Price. For statistically-derived bands see MVRV Extreme Deviation Pricing Bands.