Definition. This chart presents pricing bands derived from the MVRV Ratio based on the degree of deviation from its all-time mean, plotted alongside spot price (grey) and the Realized Price (purple). Upper and lower bands are computed from levels representing +/- 0.5 to 1.0 standard deviations:

• 🔵 -1.0σ
• 🟢 -0.5σ
• 🟡 Mean
• 🟠 +0.5σ
• 🔴 +1.0σ

Technical. The bands are constructed from expanding (all-time) moments of the MVRV Ratio, projected into the price domain via the Realized Price:

• Band = (cummean(MVRV) + k x cumstd(MVRV)) x Realized Price, for k in {-1, -0.5, 0, +0.5, +1}

Using expanding rather than rolling statistics means each band incorporates the full history of the ratio, adapting slowly as the market matures.

Interpretation. Where the fixed-level MVRV bands rely on historically chosen thresholds, this statistical variant lets the data define what constitutes an extreme: price trading near the upper bands indicates the market carries an unusually large average unrealized profit relative to its own history — conditions characteristic of late-cycle euphoria — while price near or below the lower bands indicates aggregate unrealized loss at a statistically uncommon depth, characteristic of bear market capitulation phases. Because both the mean and the standard deviation expand over time, the bands compress gradually as MVRV's cycle amplitude declines with market maturity.

Notes. For full details on the derivation of these models, please refer to our report Mastering MVRV. Built from MVRV and Realized Price. For bands at fixed characteristic MVRV levels see MVRV Pricing Bands.