Description
Definition. This chart presents the proportion of all-time trading days that the MVRV Ratio has traded above, or below, particular levels which have historically aligned with cycle extremes: above 2.4 🟡, above 3.2 🔴, below 1.0 🟢 and below 0.8 🔵. Spot price is shown in grey.
Technical. Each trace is an expanding proportion of days where the condition held:
Days Above L (%) = cumsum(if(MVRV > L, 1, 0)) / Total Trading DaysDays Below L (%) = cumsum(if(MVRV < L, 1, 0)) / Total Trading Days
evaluated for the levels L = 2.4, 3.2 (above) and 1.0, 0.8 (below).
Interpretation. These proportions frame how statistically rare each MVRV condition is: for example, if MVRV has only been below a particular level for 10% of trading days, that means it has been above it for the other 90%, making that scenario uncommon. In Bitcoin's history the reference readings are approximately: below 0.8 around 5% of trading days (extreme lows), below 1.0 around 15% (getting low), above 2.4 around 20% (getting high), and above 3.2 around 6% (extremely high). Because the traces are cumulative proportions, a flattening curve means the condition has stopped occurring — the declining frequency of extreme high readings across cycles, for instance, documents the compression of MVRV's amplitude as the market matures. This day-count approach is the basis for the threshold levels used in the companion extreme-value charts.
Notes. For full details on the derivation of these models, please refer to our report Mastering MVRV. Built from the native MVRV Ratio. The resulting thresholds are visualized on the ratio itself in MVRV Ratio (Market Extremes).