Definition. This chart presents the MVRV Ratio (magenta) with key levels considered historically aligned with cycle extremes highlighted as colored columns, alongside spot price (grey) and the Realized Price (orange).

Technical. MVRV = Spot Price / Realized Price. The highlighted 'extreme value' bands fire when MVRV crosses the following thresholds, derived by calculating the proportion of days through history where MVRV has traded below, or above these levels. Results are considered since 2017, which is aligned with a more mature Bitcoin market:

• 🔵 Extreme Lows: MVRV has been Below 0.8 for around 5% of trading days.

• 🟢 Getting Low: MVRV has been Below 1.0 for around 15% of trading days.

• 🟠 Getting High: MVRV has been Above 2.4 for around 20% of trading days.

• 🔴 Extremely High: MVRV has been Above 3.2 for around 6% of trading days.

Interpretation. The rarity of each condition frames its significance: if MVRV has only been below a particular level for 10% of trading days, that means it has been above it for the other 90%, making that scenario statistically uncommon. Visits into the blue and green zones describe unusually depressed investor profitability — conditions historically associated with bear market floors and accumulation phases — while the orange and red zones describe elevated unrealized profit, historically characteristic of late-cycle euphoria where the incentive to take profit is at its largest. These levels are guides calibrated on Bitcoin's history since 2017, not fixed laws; market maturation can compress the extremes over time.

Notes. For full details on the derivation of these models, please refer to our report Mastering MVRV. Built from Realized Price; the day-count derivation is charted in MVRV Days Above and Below, and a continuous-deviation alternative in MVRV Extreme Deviations.