Definition. This chart presents the MVRV Ratio (black) color-coded depending on the degree of deviation from its all-time mean, alongside spot price (grey) and a horizontal marker of the current MVRV value (magenta). Upper and lower bands are computed from the all-time mean at +/- 0.5 and 1.0 standard deviations.

Technical. The bands use the expanding (all-time) mean and standard deviation of MVRV: cummean(MVRV) +/- k x cumstd(MVRV) with k = 0.5 and 1.0. The following market cycle phases are presented as colored columns:

• 🔵 MVRV < -1.0σ
• 🟢 -1.0σ < MVRV < -0.5σ
• 🟡 -0.5σ < MVRV < +0.5σ
• 🟠 +0.5σ < MVRV < +1.0σ
• 🔴 MVRV > +1.0σ

Interpretation. The color phases map the market cycle through the lens of aggregate investor profitability. The red zone (> +1.0σ) describes statistically extreme unrealized profit, historically characteristic of euphoric cycle tops where the incentive to realize gains is largest. The orange and yellow zones describe progressively more moderate conditions, while the green and blue zones mark depressed profitability — the blue zone (< -1.0σ) has historically aligned with capitulation lows and the deepest phases of bear markets. Because the mean and deviation are computed over all history, the bands evolve slowly and the classification is anchored to the market's full statistical record; the magenta line makes the current reading easy to place against that history.

Notes. For full details on the derivation of these models, please refer to our report Mastering MVRV. Built from the native MVRV Ratio. Related views: MVRV Deviation Bands for the band construction, and MVRV Ratio (Market Extremes) for fixed threshold levels.