Definition. This chart presents a set of deviation bands related to the MVRV Ratio (orange), shown against spot price (grey). Both the all-time cumulative mean and the 4yr rolling mean are shown in blue, each wrapped by upper (red) and lower (green) bands representing +/- 1 standard deviation.

Technical. Two band sets are computed from the MVRV Ratio:

• All-time: cummean(MVRV) +/- cumstd(MVRV) — expanding mean and standard deviation over the full history
• 4yr: sma(MVRV, 1460) +/- std(MVRV, 1460) — rolling 4-year window (fainter traces)

Interpretation. These bands frame MVRV as a mean-reverting oscillator. Excursions above the upper band describe unusually elevated unrealized profit across the market — conditions historically aligned with late-cycle euphoria and heightened profit-taking incentives — while dips below the lower band describe depressed profitability characteristic of capitulation and bear market floors. The two band sets serve different purposes: the all-time set is slow and anchors MVRV against its entire history, while the 4yr set adapts to the market's maturation, acknowledging that MVRV's amplitude has compressed across cycles as the market has grown larger and more efficient. Signals that agree across both band sets are correspondingly stronger.

Notes. For full details on the derivation of these models, please refer to our report Mastering MVRV. Built from the native MVRV Ratio. Related views: MVRV Extreme Deviations for a phase-colored version, and MVRV Ratio (Market Extremes) for fixed threshold levels.