Definition. This toolkit includes a number of original pioneering pricing models developed during the very early days of the on-chain analysis discipline — the shoulders of giants on which the field has built for years after. Plotted against spot price (grey) are: Realized Price 🟠, Delta Price 🟤, Cumulative Value-Days Destroyed (CVDD) 🟣, Transferred Price 🔵, Balanced Price 🔴, and Top Price 🟢.

Technical. The models are constructed as follows:

• 🟠 Realized Price values each coin in the supply at the time it was last spent on-chain, reflecting the market's 'average cost basis'.
• 🟤 Delta Price = (Delta Cap / Circulating Supply) — the difference between Realized Price and the all-time average price.
• 🟣 CVDD = cumsum(Coin-Days Destroyed x Price) / (6,000,000 x market trading days) — lifespan destruction brought into the price realm via a 6M calibration factor.
• 🔵 Transferred Price = cumsum(Coin-Days Destroyed x Price) / (Supply x market trading days) — same principle, adjusted by coin supply instead; a life-to-date average price of all spending behaviour.
• 🔴 Balanced Price = Realized Price - Transferred Price.
• 🟢 Top Price = 35 x all-time average Market Cap / Supply.

Interpretation. Each model has an established historical track record: Delta Price has shown to catch the very bottom wicks of bear markets; CVDD has a strong record of supporting bear market floors; Transferred Price typically trades at a significant discount to spot due to the large volume of spending at historically cheap prices; Balanced Price can be thought of as a 'fair value' model near the end of bear markets, where price matches the difference between what was paid (realized) and what was spent (transferred); and Top Price establishes a ceiling model for macro market tops which has been effective across multiple cycles.

Notes. Attributions: Realized Price was developed by the Coinmetrics team (December 2018, at the bottom of the bear market); Delta Price by David Puell (Feb 2019) as a 'half fundamental, half technical' hybrid; CVDD by Willy Woo (April 2019); Transferred Price by David Puell (also April 2019); Balanced Price followed as the next iteration; Top Price by Willy Woo. Built from Realized Price, Delta Cap, CVDD, Balanced Price and Coin Days Destroyed. See also the companion chart Balanced, Investor, and Delta Price Models and the Top Cap Model.