Definition. The Bitcoin Top Cap model was developed by Willy Woo to identify market cycle tops. The chart plots Market Cap (grey) against the Average Cap (dark blue) and two Top Cap variants derived from it: the classic x35 multiple (red) and a more conservative x15 multiple (orange).

Technical. The Average Cap is calculated as the cumulative sum of daily Market Cap values divided by the age of the market in days — an all-time average of market capitalization. The Top Cap models are constant multiples of it:

• Average Cap = cumsum(Market Cap) / market age in days
• Top Cap (x35) = Average Cap x 35
• Top Cap (x15) = Average Cap x 15

Interpretation. Because the Average Cap accumulates over the entire history of the market, it forms a slow-moving baseline of long-run valuation; the Top Cap multiples project a ceiling above that baseline. The x35 variant described macro cycle tops in Bitcoin's earlier cycles. The additional x15 multiplier is included to show sensitivity to the chosen factor, and to gauge the effect of diminishing returns — as the market matures and grows in size, successive cycles have tended to peak at lower multiples of the long-run average, so a fixed multiple calibrated on early cycles gradually loses precision.

Notes. Coined by Willy Woo; see Bitcoin Price Models. Built from Market Cap. A price-denominated Top Price variant appears in The On-chain Originals Toolkit; for a cost-of-production-based ceiling model see the Block Subsidy Model.