Definition. This chart presents a series of pricing models which are often consulted during Bitcoin bear market trends: the Investor Price 🟢, the Balanced Price 🔵, and the Delta Price 🟣, plotted alongside spot price (grey).

Technical. Each model is derived from capitalization measures normalized by the circulating supply:

• 🟢 Investor Price = (Realized Cap - Thermocap) / Circulating Supply — the average acquisition price for all coins which have been spent and distributed by miners.

• 🔵 Balanced Price = Realized Price - Transferred Price — the difference between the on-chain volume weighted 'price paid' and the on-chain volume and time weighted 'price spent', adjusting for investor holding time.

• 🟣 Delta Price = (Realized Cap - Average Cap) / Circulating Supply — the difference between Realized Cap and the all-time Average Cap, producing a form of combined on-chain and technical pricing model.

Interpretation. All three models discount the market's aggregate cost basis in different ways, and as such tend to trade well below spot price for most of the cycle. Their significance has historically been concentrated in bear market lows: prolonged downtrends have often terminated in the price range described by these models, where price approaches the average acquisition cost of long-dormant capital and miner-distributed supply. Convergence of spot price into this band is therefore characteristic of deep-value, late-bear-market conditions rather than a routine occurrence.

Notes. Built from Balanced Price, Investor Capitalization, Delta Cap and Circulating Supply. The historical lineage of these models is charted in The On-chain Originals Toolkit; for MVRV-derived bands see MVRV Pricing Bands.