Definition. This chart compares the yearly rate of change of the aggregate Exchange Balance to the volume of BTC mined over the same period, providing a relative measure of the amount of new issuance which was theoretically absorbed by exchanges (orange columns), alongside price (grey).

Technical. The rate divides the 365-day change in exchange balances by the growth of circulating supply over the same window:

• Exchange Absorption Rate = diff(Exchange Balance, 365) / diff(Circulating Supply, 365)

Exchange balances aggregate all wallets identified as belonging to centralized exchanges.

Interpretation. Absorption rates express cohort behavior relative to the pace of new issuance, which makes them comparable across halving epochs even as the mined volume shrinks:

• Values over 100% indicate that the cohort increased their aggregate balance by more than all coins mined in the past year, and thus acted as a net absorbing balance. Note that values over 100% are possible because coins can also be transferred from other investor cohorts (e.g. Whales to Shrimps, or Exchanges to Fish).

• Values near 0% indicate that the cohort's aggregate balance was approximately flat over the last year.

• Values below 0% indicate that the cohort's aggregate balance decreased over the past year, and was distributed alongside newly issued coins. For exchanges specifically, sustained negative readings describe coins being withdrawn to self-custody faster than new supply is mined, while strongly positive readings describe net deposits — behavior often associated with increased sell-side availability.

Notes. First featured in the research report The Shrimp Supply Sink: Revisiting the Distribution of Bitcoin Supply. Companion charts cover investor cohorts: Shrimp and Fish, Fish and Sharks, Whales and Sharks and Miners. Built from Exchange Balance and Circulating Supply.