Definition. The Pi Cycle Top compares the momentum of two moving averages of price — the 111-day SMA (light blue) and twice the 350-day SMA (violet) — and converts the gap between them into an oscillator (purple) that marks cycle extremes. The two windows were chosen because 350 / 111 = 3.153, an approximation of Pi.

Technical. Both moving averages are plotted over price (grey), and a single oscillator is derived from their ratio:

• 111 SMA = sma(Price, 111)
• 2 x 350 SMA = 2 x sma(Price, 350)
• Pi Cycle Oscillator = 1 - (2 x 350 SMA) / (111 SMA)
• Top Signal (pale red columns) marks periods where the oscillator is above 0, i.e. the 111 SMA has crossed above the 2 x 350 SMA
• Bottom Signal (pale mint columns) marks periods where the oscillator falls below -1.75, i.e. the 111 SMA is trading roughly 64% below the 2 x 350 SMA

Interpretation. A cross of the mid-horizon 111 SMA above the long-horizon 2 x 350 SMA describes a market whose recent momentum has run far ahead of its long-run trend, and in past cycles it has landed within days of the macro top — that condition is what the Top Signal shades. The opposite extreme, where the 111 SMA collapses far beneath the 2 x 350 SMA, describes a market that has cooled well below its long-run momentum reference and has clustered around cycle lows. Both are rare-regime markers that say nothing about the long stretches in between, and the top condition in particular has occurred only a handful of times, so the sample is small enough that it is best read as confirmation alongside other indicators rather than as a standalone trigger.

Notes. Coined by Philip Swift. Built from Price. Related long-horizon moving-average models: Mayer Multiple, Investor Tool, Technical Pricing Models.