Description
Definition. A composite momentum signal that scores eight on-chain conditions drawn from four factor families — market activity, market profitability, spending behaviour and wealth distribution — and shades BTC price by how many are currently positive.
Technical. The composite index sums eight binary conditions: miner fee revenue 2yr Z-Score above 0; exchange inflow volume 30D-SMA above its 365D-SMA; supply in profit rising over 30 days; AVIV Ratio 30D-SMA above its 365D-SMA; STH-MVRV above 1; entity-adjusted SOPR 30D-SMA above its 365D-SMA; the realized profit/loss momentum oscillator above 0; and the SLRV ribbon (30D/150D) above 1. Price is shaded blue while 4 or more conditions hold, dark blue at 8 of 8, and orange below 4.
Interpretation. Four or more simultaneous positive conditions mark sustained positive momentum rather than a single-metric blip. The 8-of-8 state is rare and clusters inside the strongest phases of a bull market, not at its top.
Notes. The backtested performance of this rule is charted in Tracking Market Momentum - Performance.