Definition. Backtested performance of the on-chain momentum signal against a buy-and-hold benchmark.

Technical. backtest() runs the rule "hold while 4 or more of the 8 composite conditions are positive, otherwise hold cash" from 1 January 2014, starting from $1,000 and charging a 0.1% fee per trade. The benchmark buys $1,000 of BTC on the same date and never trades. Price is shaded by the same 4-of-8 condition so entries and exits can be read against the equity curve.

Interpretation. The gap between the two curves is the model's contribution net of fees. Because the rule is long-only, it can only add value by sitting out drawdowns — periods where the curves converge are periods where staying invested would have done just as well.

Notes. The signal itself is charted in Bitcoin: On-chain Momentum Signal.