Definition. This chart shows AVIV-NUPL (blue columns), a Cointime Economics variant of the popular Net Unrealized Profit/Loss indicator derived from the True Market Mean valuation framework, overlaid with the original 🟠 NUPL metric for comparison. It gauges the relative degree of unrealized profit (positive) or loss (negative) held within the economically active supply.

Technical. The model takes the difference between the spot valuation of the Active Supply (Active Cap) and the Investor Cost Basis (Investor Cap), and then normalizes by the Active Cap:

• AVIV NUPL = (Active Cap - Investor Cap) / Active Cap

where Active Cap = Price x Active Supply and Active Supply = Liveliness x Circulating Supply.

Interpretation. Positive values indicate the economically active supply holds net unrealized profit; negative values indicate net unrealized loss. AVIV-NUPL effectively discounts lost and long-dormant coins in a responsive and self-correcting way, negating the observable long-term upwards drift in the cycle lows of the original NUPL metric — a drift driven by ancient supply carrying ever-larger paper profits. Comparing the two traces directly shows this correction: AVIV-NUPL has repeatedly returned to comparable depths at cyclical lows where classic NUPL floors have trended structurally higher, making the AVIV variant the more consistent oscillator for cross-cycle comparison of investor profitability.

Notes. This chart was developed within the Cointime Economics framework for Bitcoin, a joint venture between Glassnode and ARK Invest. Full details are available in two formats: an overview primer (Version I, published via ARK) and a comprehensive guide for specialists (Version II, published via Glassnode). The classic counterpart is Net Unrealized Profit/Loss. Built from Investor Capitalization and Liveliness. See also the True Market Deviation (AVIV Ratio).