Definition. The True Market Mean Price, or the Active-Investor Price, is a representative cost basis model for all coins acquired on secondary markets. We argue that this on-chain cost basis is one of the most accurate models available for on-chain analysts seeking the aggregate average on-chain acquisition price by investors, and thus a likely reference point for mean reversion models. From it derives the True Market Deviation, or Active-Value-to-Investor-Value (AVIV) Ratio, measuring price deviation from that cost basis.

Technical. The model divides the Investor Capitalization by the economically active supply region:

• True Market Mean Price = Investor Cap / Active Supply
• AVIV Ratio = (Active Supply x Spot Price) / Investor Cap = Active Market Cap / Investor Cap

where Active Supply = Liveliness x Circulating Supply and Investor Cap = Realized Cap - Thermo Cap (capital invested via secondary markets net of miner issuance revenue).

Interpretation. Given the Active Supply represents the economically active supply region, AVIV compares the Active Market Cap to the Investor Cap as a new variant of MVRV. To date, the AVIV Ratio has shown a long-term mean and median very close to 1.0, providing a robust argument that the True Market Mean Price reflects a market wide cost basis. Readings well above 1.0 describe an economically active supply holding large unrealized profits relative to invested capital — conditions typical of heated markets — while sustained readings below 1.0 have historically marked bear market lows, where the active market trades below its aggregate acquisition price.

Notes. Built from Investor Capitalization, Liveliness, Circulating Supply and Realized Price (comparison traces for classic MVRV and Active MVRV are included, hidden by default). Sibling models: Active MVRV, Vaulted MVRV and Cointime MVRV; the framework is applied to other assets in the Ethereum and Litecoin case studies. Developed within the Cointime Economics framework for Bitcoin, a joint venture between Glassnode and ARK Invest, with full details available in two formats: an overview primer (Version I published via ARK) and a comprehensive guide for specialists (Version II published via Glassnode).