Vaulted Realized Price may be considered to be a pricing level that reflects the ‘potential energy’ stored in the system. Somewhat counter-intuitively, the more long-term coin accumulation that takes place, the larger the uncertainty becomes between the proportion of truly lost vs. HODLed supply. Vaulted Realized Price will trade lower in this instance, as more cointime accumulation takes place, and uncertainty regarding future distributive pressure builds (and vice-versa).

Vaulted Realized Price and Vaulted MVRV can best appreciated by considering the extremes:

• In the event where every coin that can be spent (i.e., non-lost) is spent, Vaultedness will decrease to a minimum, and Vaulted Supply will provide a true reflection of lost supply. In this instance, Vaulted Realized Price would increase to a maximum, reflecting a high degree of certainty regarding the balance of lost and economically active supply.

• In the event that all coins cease transacting for an extended period of time, Vaultedness will increase towards a maximum, and uncertainty regarding the balance between lost and HODLed supply within the Vaulted Supply region will build. In this instance, Vaulted Realized Price would decrease over time towards a minimum, reflecting a high degree of uncertainty regarding future distributive pressure.

Vaulted MVRV accounts only for the relatively inactive, HODLed and/or Lost coin supply. By excluding active supply, Vaulted MVRV provides a more consistent and stable minimum value near historical cycle lows. Low values of this model represent periods where coin inactivity peaks, synonymous with a market preference for acquisition and transfer to cold storage. The Vaulted Supply denominator swells as the market saturates with higher conviction owners, whom contribute heavily to establishing bear market floors. Cycle peaks are less reliably identified as the economically active coins contributing to daily trade are discounted.

Coined By

This metric was developed within the Cointime Economics framework for Bitcoin. This project was a joint venture between Glassnode and ARK Invest, with full details available in two formats: an overview primer (Version I published via ARK) and a comprehensive guide for specialists (Version II published via Glassnode).