Definition. This chart presents a suite of estimates for the magnitude of lost coins, covered under the Cointime Economics framework. It considers upper bound (green), lower bound (red), and best estimates (blue) using a variety of heuristics, bracketing the plausible range of supply that is permanently out of circulation.

Technical. The heuristic traces are constructed as follows:

• Upper bounds (green): the Vaulted Supply ((1 - Liveliness) x Circulating Supply), an Estimated Lost Coins Ceiling that follows Vaulted Supply until mid-2011 and thereafter a fitted logarithmic ceiling, and Vaulted Supply net of the Short-Term Holder vaulted component.
• Lower bounds (red/rose): Probably Lost Supply, Miner Unspent Supply, and the upper envelope of the two.
• Best estimates (blue/purple): Supply Last Active more than 5 years ago, more than 7 years ago, and the Vaulted Long-Term Holder Supply (LTH supply discounted by cumulative entity-adjusted LTH Coindays Destroyed).

Interpretation. No single heuristic can prove a coin is lost, so this study triangulates: the lower-bound traces count only coins with strong evidence of loss (provably dormant miner rewards and coins untouched since Bitcoin's earliest era), while the upper-bound traces count all deeply dormant value, some of which belongs to living holders of high conviction. The best-estimate band in between — old-age supply cohorts and vaulted long-term holder supply — narrows the plausible range. The spread between bounds itself is informative: it widens as supply vaults during bear phases and compresses when ancient coins awaken, and any sharp drop in a lower-bound trace flags provably-old coins moving again.

Notes. This chart was developed within the Cointime Economics framework for Bitcoin, a joint venture between Glassnode and ARK Invest. Full details are available in two formats: an overview primer (Version I, published via ARK) and a comprehensive guide for specialists (Version II, published via Glassnode). Built from, among others, Liveliness, Probably Lost Supply, Miner Unspent Supply, Supply Last Active >10y and Long-Term Holder Supply. The supply regions are charted in Active and Vaulted Supply.