Description
Definition. This chart presents the three supply regions defined within the Cointime Economics framework, alongside price:
Circulating Supply (grey) is the total BTC supply issued to miners, asymptotically approaching the defined cap of 21M.
🔵 Active Supply is an equivalent sum of Bitcoin that has experienced a complete expenditure of all its accumulated cointime — the economically meaningful coin volume actively participating in the Bitcoin economy.
🟡 Vaulted Supply is an equivalent sum of Bitcoin that has never been spent, the unspent coin volume required to generate the cumulative coinblocks stored within the network. It may be considered the coin volume that is completely dormant and not actively participating in the Bitcoin economy.
Technical. The regions are derived by weighting Circulating Supply with the cumulative cointime state variables:
- 🔵
Active Supply = Liveliness x Circulating Supply - 🟡
Vaulted Supply = Vaultedness x Circulating Supply = (1 - Liveliness) x Circulating Supply
The two regions sum to Circulating Supply at all times. Liveliness and Vaultedness are carried on the chart as hidden inputs.
Interpretation. The Active/Vaulted split re-weights the supply by its accumulated dormancy rather than by discrete age bands. Growth in Vaulted Supply reflects wealth migrating into deep cold storage, characteristic of accumulation regimes; growth in Active Supply reflects previously dormant coins re-entering circulation, characteristic of distribution regimes.
Notes. Built from Liveliness and Circulating Supply. The underlying state variables are charted as Liveliness and Vaultedness. Vaulted Supply's direct ancestor is HODLed or Lost Coins, first introduced by Adamant Capital. The drivers of changes in each region are decomposed in Active Supply Change Decomposition and Vaulted Supply Change Decomposition. Developed within the Cointime Economics framework for Bitcoin, a joint venture between Glassnode and ARK Invest, with full details available in two formats: an overview primer (Version I published via ARK) and a comprehensive guide for specialists (Version II published via Glassnode).