Definition. This case study applies the Cointime Economics True Market Mean and AVIV Ratio construction to Ethereum. The True Market Mean Price (blue line), or Active-Investor Price, is a representative cost basis model for all coins acquired on secondary markets, shown against the ETH price (grey); the lower panel shows the AVIV Ratio (blue columns) with its all-time mean (red) and 4-year rolling median (indigo).

Technical. The models are constructed from the Investor Capitalization and the active supply region:

• True Market Mean = Investor Cap / Active Supply
• AVIV Ratio = Active Cap / Investor Cap = (Price x Active Supply) / Investor Cap

where Active Supply = Liveliness x Circulating Supply.

Interpretation. We argue that this on-chain cost basis is one of the most accurate models available for on-chain analysts seeking the aggregate average on-chain acquisition price by investors, and thus a likely reference point for mean reversion models. Given the Active Supply represents the economically active supply region, the AVIV Ratio is a variant of MVRV comparing the Active Market Cap to the Investor Cap — the True Market Deviation. To date, the AVIV Ratio has shown a long-term mean and median very close to 1.0, providing a robust argument that the True Market Mean Price reflects a market-wide cost basis. The mean and rolling-median overlays make deviations directly readable: extended excursions above them mark phases of elevated unrealized profit among active Ethereum holders, while dips below have accompanied capitulation phases.

Notes. This chart was developed within the Cointime Economics framework for Bitcoin, a joint venture between Glassnode and ARK Invest. Full details are available in two formats: an overview primer (Version I, published via ARK) and a comprehensive guide for specialists (Version II, published via Glassnode). This chart applies the same construction to Ethereum. Built from Investor Capitalization and Liveliness. The Bitcoin original is charted in True Market Deviation (AVIV Ratio), with a further case study in Litecoin Cointime True Market Mean and AVIV.