Definition. This chart displays the percentage of Short-Term Holder on-chain transfer volume in proportion to the total supply held by this cohort — the daily turnover of STH supply — split into volume spent in profit (green, plotted positive) and volume spent in loss (red, plotted negative), with price in grey.

Technical. Both components are smoothed with a 14-day EMA and normalized by STH supply:

• Volume in Profit (% of Supply) = ema(STH Transfer Volume in Profit, 14) / STH Supply (green)
• Volume in Loss (% of Supply) = -1 x ema(STH Transfer Volume in Loss, 14) / STH Supply (red)

The transfer volume series are entity-adjusted.

Interpretation. Short-Term Holders are the market's most active cohort, so their baseline turnover is structurally higher than that of Long-Term Holders — it is the relative swings that carry signal. Periods where a large proportion of the held supply transacts typically occur around high-volatility events such as major sell-offs, and during oversupply events near market tops. A profit-dominant profile shows recent buyers taking gains into strength, while surges in the loss component indicate top buyers exiting underwater, a pattern characteristic of correction lows and capitulation events. Because STH coins re-enter the cohort with every purchase, sustained elevated turnover also reflects an active, speculation-driven market phase, whereas compression of both components accompanies consolidation.

Notes. The Long-Term Holder counterpart is Long-Term Holder Spent Volume as Percent of Held Supply; the profit/loss bias of the same cohort's volume is charted in Short-Term Holder Percent Transfer Volume in Profit. Built from Entity-Adjusted STH Transfer Volume in Profit, Entity-Adjusted STH Transfer Volume in Loss and STH Supply.