Definition. This chart displays the bias of Short-Term Holder on-chain transfer volume that is settled in profit versus in loss, shown as columns oscillating around zero (green when profit-dominant, red when loss-dominant) with a smoothed bias line (dark blue) and price (black).

Technical. The bias re-centers the profit share of STH transfer volume around the 50% midpoint:

• STH Volume Bias = (STH Volume in Profit / STH Total Volume) - 0.5

The profit share is first smoothed with a 7-day EMA before the bias split, and the dark blue line applies a further 7-day EMA to the combined bias. Both volume series are entity-adjusted.

• 🟢 Displays the bias of STH transfer volume in profit — flags when more than 50% of Short-Term Holder transfer volume is settled in profit.

• 🔴 Displays the bias of STH transfer volume in loss — flags when less than 50% of Short-Term Holder transfer volume is settled in profit (i.e. the majority moves at a loss).

Interpretation. Short-Term Holders own coins younger than 155 days, so their cost basis sits close to the prevailing price and the bias flips readily with local market direction — this is a fast-moving sentiment gauge for the market's most active cohort. In uptrends the bias holds positive as recent buyers spend at a gain; during corrections it swings sharply negative as top buyers realize losses. Extended periods of deeply negative bias indicate persistent loss realization by recent buyers, behavior characteristic of local capitulation, while a decisive recovery back above zero has historically accompanied trend repair. Comparing against the Long-Term Holder counterpart separates local sentiment shifts from macro regime changes.

Notes. The Long-Term Holder counterpart is Long-Term Holder Percent Transfer Volume in Profit; the volume-turnover view of the same cohort is Short-Term Holder Spent Volume as Percent of Held Supply. Built from Entity-Adjusted STH Transfer Volume in Profit and Entity-Adjusted STH Transfer Volume.