Definition. This chart displays the bias of Long-Term Holder on-chain transfer volume that is settled in profit versus in loss, shown as columns oscillating around zero (green when profit-dominant, red when loss-dominant) with a smoothed bias line (dark blue) and price (black).

Technical. The bias re-centers the profit share of LTH transfer volume around the 50% midpoint:

• LTH Volume Bias = (LTH Volume in Profit / LTH Total Volume) - 0.5

The profit share is first smoothed with a 7-day EMA before the bias split, and the dark blue line applies a further 7-day EMA to the combined bias. Both volume series are entity-adjusted.

• 🟢 Displays the bias of LTH transfer volume in profit — flags when more than 50% of Long-Term Holder transfer volume is settled in profit.

• 🔴 Displays the bias of LTH transfer volume in loss — flags when less than 50% of Long-Term Holder transfer volume is settled in profit (i.e. the majority moves at a loss).

Interpretation. Long-Term Holders own coins older than 155 days, so the profit share of their spending is normally high — mature coins usually carry a gain. A persistently positive bias is therefore the default state of healthy markets, with holders realizing profits into strength. A negative bias is the notable signal: when the majority of LTH volume settles at a loss, coins held through a full drawdown are being spent underwater, behavior that has historically clustered in late bear market capitulation phases. Crossings of the zero line thus act as a regime marker for the conviction of the market's most experienced cohort.

Notes. The Short-Term Holder counterpart is Short-Term Holder Percent Transfer Volume in Profit; the volume-turnover view of the same cohort is Long-Term Holder Spent Volume as Percent of Held Supply. Built from Entity-Adjusted LTH Transfer Volume in Profit and Entity-Adjusted LTH Transfer Volume.