Description
Definition. This chart compares the yearly balance change of the smallest entity cohorts against the volume of BTC mined over the same period, providing a relative measure of the amount of new issuance which was theoretically absorbed by each cohort: Shrimp (entities holding < 1 BTC, red), Crab (1-10 BTC, salmon), and Fish (10-100 BTC, teal).
Technical. Each cohort's absorption rate is its 365-day balance change divided by the 365-day change in circulating supply (i.e. coins mined over the past year):
Absorption Rate (%) = diff(Cohort Supply, 365) / diff(Circulating Supply, 365)
The Shrimp cohort aggregates the entity balance bands below 1 BTC. Price is shown in grey for reference.
Interpretation. Note that values over 100% are possible as coins can be transferred from other investor cohorts (e.g. Whales to Shrimps, or Exchanges to Fish).
Values over 100% indicate that the cohort increased their aggregate balance by more than all coins mined in the past year, and thus acted as a net absorbing balance.
Values near 0% indicate that the cohort's aggregate balance was approximately flat over the last year.
Values below 0% indicate that the cohort's aggregate balance decreased over the past year, and was distributed alongside newly issued coins.
Persistent absorption above 100% by retail-sized cohorts describes a structural demand base soaking up more than the miners' entire annual output — a dynamic that grows more consequential with each halving as issuance shrinks.
Notes. For more information, please see our research report where this metric was first featured: The Shrimp Supply Sink: Revisiting the Distribution of Bitcoin Supply. The larger cohorts are charted in Yearly Absorption Rates (Fish to Shark) and (Shark to Whale), with Exchanges and Miners as institutional counterparts.