Definition. The 28-day Market-Realised Gradient is an oscillator that compares the momentum of the market price against the momentum of the realized price (the aggregate on-chain cost basis of the supply). The chart shows price (grey), realized price (orange), and the Delta Gradient oscillator (blue) around a zero baseline (red).

Technical. The oscillator measures the 28-day change in market price relative to the 28-day change in realized price, normalized as an expanding z-score over all history:

• Delta = diff(Price, 28) - diff(Realized Price, 28)
• Delta Gradient = (Delta - cummean(Delta)) / cumstd(Delta)

The individual Market Gradient and Realised Gradient component traces are included in the workbench but hidden by default.

Interpretation. The realized price only moves when coins change hands on-chain, so its gradient reflects the momentum of genuine capital flows, while the market price gradient reflects speculative momentum. A positive Delta Gradient means price is appreciating faster than the underlying capital inflows would justify on their own — sustained high readings are characteristic of exuberant, momentum-driven phases and can flag overheating at extremes. A negative Delta Gradient means price is falling faster than the on-chain cost basis is adjusting, which is typical of fear-driven sell-offs and, at extremes, capitulation. Crossings of the zero line mark shifts in which force is dominant and have historically been useful markers of trend inflection. The 28-day window smooths out day-to-day noise and tracks monthly swings in trend momentum.

Notes. Built from Price and Realized Price. The other windows of this family are charted in 14-day Market Realised Gradient and 140-day Market Realised Gradient.