Definition. The 140-day Market-Realised Gradient is an oscillator that compares the momentum of the market price against the momentum of the realized price (the aggregate on-chain cost basis of the supply). The chart shows price (grey), realized price (orange), and the Delta Gradient oscillator (blue) around a zero baseline (red).

Technical. The oscillator measures the 140-day change in market price relative to the 140-day change in realized price, normalized as an expanding z-score over all history:

• Delta = diff(Price, 140) - diff(Realized Price, 140)
• Delta Gradient = (Delta - cummean(Delta)) / cumstd(Delta)

The individual Market Gradient and Realised Gradient component traces are included in the workbench but hidden by default.

Interpretation. The realized price only moves when coins change hands on-chain, so its gradient reflects the momentum of genuine capital flows, while the market price gradient reflects speculative momentum. A positive Delta Gradient means price is appreciating faster than the underlying capital inflows would justify on their own — sustained high readings are characteristic of exuberant, momentum-driven phases and can flag overheating at extremes. A negative Delta Gradient means price is falling faster than the on-chain cost basis is adjusting, which is typical of fear-driven sell-offs and, at extremes, capitulation. Crossings of the zero line mark shifts in which force is dominant and have historically been useful markers of trend inflection. The 140-day window is the slowest of the family, filtering out local volatility to describe macro trend momentum.

Notes. Built from Price and Realized Price. The other windows of this family are charted in 14-day Market Realised Gradient and 28-day Market Realised Gradient.