Definition. Realized Price reflects the aggregate price at which each coin was last spent on-chain. Using the Short-Term Holder heuristic, this chart calculates the realized price (estimated average acquisition price) of the Short-Term Holder cohort at hourly resolution — coins moved within the last 155 days, which reflect the most probable coins to be spent on any given day — shown in light blue with statistical High (red) and Low (amber) bands, alongside spot price (black).

Technical. The cohort cost basis is recovered from STH-MVRV, and the bands scale it by the expanding (full-history) mean and standard deviation of STH-MVRV:

• STH Realized Price = Price / STH-MVRV
• High-Band = (cummean(STH-MVRV) + cumstd(STH-MVRV)) x STH Realized Price (red)
• Low-Band = (cummean(STH-MVRV) - cumstd(STH-MVRV)) x STH Realized Price (amber)

Interpretation. The Short-Term Holder cost basis marks the break-even level of the market's most active cohort, and price interacting with it has historically distinguished trend regimes: trading above it with the cohort in profit is characteristic of constructive uptrends, while sustained trade below it puts recent buyers underwater and has typically accompanied corrective or bearish phases. The bands frame how far short-term holder profitability has stretched relative to its historical norm — the High-Band flags statistically elevated STH profit (increased profit-taking risk), the Low-Band statistically severe STH loss (capitulation conditions). Note that cohort cost bases tend to separate from the aggregate during macro uptrends as coins are revalued to higher prices, and converge during bear markets as the investor base consolidates to higher conviction, longer-term investors.

Notes. Built from STH-MVRV. See also the rolling-window Short-Term Holder Cost Basis Model, the STH Realized Price & MVRV chart, and the aggregate Realized Price.