Definition. This chart presents the rolling 4-year Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of price through history (orange), plotted beneath price (black). The 4-year period was selected to capture both the classic Bitcoin halving cycle, whilst also accounting for the typical bull/bear cycle which tends to be of a similar duration.

Technical. The CAGR annualizes the total return over a trailing 4-year window:

• 4yr CAGR = (Price / Price 4 years ago)^(1/4) - 1

A blue column marker on the price panel highlights the reference date exactly four years before the latest bar — the base period of the current reading.

Interpretation. The 4-year CAGR smooths through entire market cycles, expressing what an investor would have annualized by holding across the full window regardless of entry timing within the cycle. Sustained readings above zero indicate that even cycle-trough buyers four years ago are in profit on an annualized basis, while dips below zero have historically been rare and confined to the depths of severe bear markets. The long-run trajectory of the series also documents the structural compression of returns as the market matures — successive cycles have tended to deliver lower peak CAGRs. Comparing the current reading against its own history therefore places today's performance in the context of long-term expectations rather than short-term momentum.

Notes. Built from Price. Shorter-horizon views are charted in Quarterly, Monthly and Weekly Price Performance and Period-over-Period Returns.