Definition. This risk-indicator model tracks price relative to the Short-Term Holder cost basis — the average acquisition price of coins moved within the last 155 days — and wraps it in statistically derived heat bands: Over Heated (+2 STD, red), Heated (+1 STD, amber) and Cooled (-1 STD, teal), plotted at hourly resolution alongside price (black) and the STH cost basis itself (blue).

Technical. The STH cost basis is recovered from the STH-MVRV ratio, and the bands scale it by the rolling statistics of STH-MVRV over a multi-year window:

• STH Cost Basis = Price / STH-MVRV
• Over Heated = (sma(STH-MVRV, W) + 2 x std(STH-MVRV, W)) x STH Cost Basis (red)
• Heated = (sma(STH-MVRV, W) + 1 x std(STH-MVRV, W)) x STH Cost Basis (amber)
• Cooled = (sma(STH-MVRV, W) - 1 x std(STH-MVRV, W)) x STH Cost Basis (teal)

where W is a rolling window of 1440 days evaluated at 1-hour resolution (1440 x 24 bars).

Interpretation. The Short-Term Holder cohort holds the coins statistically most likely to be spent, so their aggregate cost basis acts as a key psychological level: in uptrends price has typically found support near the STH cost basis, while losing it has often marked deteriorating momentum. The bands translate typical historical deviations of STH profitability into price space — price reaching the +2σ band indicates short-term holders carry statistically extreme unrealized profits, a condition that has historically raised the risk of profit-taking corrections; price near or below the -1σ band indicates STHs are heavily underwater, a condition characteristic of capitulation phases and local floor formation.

Notes. Built from STH-MVRV. See also the expanding-window variant Short-Term On-Chain Cost Basis Bands and the STH Realized Price & MVRV chart.