Supply Delta is a metric that attempts to provide a more responsive and distinct signal for catching Bitcoin market cycle tops. It is calculated as STH/sma(STH,720) - LTH/sma(LTH,720), where STH and LTH are Short-Term Holder Supply, and Long-Term Holder Supply, respectively.
The underlying theory for this metric is that in late stage bull markets, LTHs are generally reaching peak distribution as expensive coins are transferred from experienced investors, to new euphoric buyers. As the balance tips such that the market is saturated with newer hands, the Supply Delta metric will invert from the uptrend and start to decline, often before the raw supply metrics reverse in their respective trends.
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Introducing Supply Delta: A Simple Metric to Identify Bitcoin Tops