Definition. Combines two mean-reversion pricing models — the MVRV Ratio and the Mayer Multiple — into a four-state risk band plotted beneath price.

Technical. The Mayer Multiple is price divided by its 200-day moving average. The band reads Very High Risk when the Mayer Multiple is above 1 and above its own 365-day mean plus two standard deviations; High Risk when it is above 1 but still inside that band; Low Risk when it has fallen to 1 or below while MVRV remains at or above 1; and Very Low Risk when both the Mayer Multiple and MVRV are at or below 1.

Interpretation. Risk is greatest when price trades at a statistically extreme premium to its own 200-day mean, the region that has historically coincided with cycle tops. The two lower states separate a market that has merely cooled back to its 200-day mean while still holding an aggregate unrealized profit from one trading below the aggregate cost basis, which is deep-value territory.