Definition. Reads the profit/loss balance of supply held by short-term holders — coins moved within the last 155 days — as a four-state risk band.

Technical. The Short-Term Holder Supply Profit/Loss Ratio is compared to three fixed levels: 9 (90% of short-term holder supply in profit against 10% in loss), 1 (an even split), and 0.11 (the inverse, 10% in profit against 90% in loss). Very High Risk prints above 9, High Risk between 1 and 9, Low Risk between 0.11 and 1, and Very Low Risk below 0.11.

Interpretation. Short-term holders are the marginal buyers of a bull market, and their aggregate profitability is a good proxy for how stretched recent demand has become. Near-total short-term holder profitability is a top-heavy condition: the cohort most likely to sell under stress is also the one holding the largest unrealized gain.