The Short-to-Long Term Holder SOPR Ratio is a model which compares the average profit multiple, and thus cost basis of coins that were spent each day. It may also be considered to be the ratio of LTH to STH Spent Price, where the Spent Price is the average acquisition cost of the coins being spent by each cohort.

It is calculated as follows:

Spent Price = Price / SOPR for the relevant cohort

STH-to-LTH SOPR Ratio = (STH-SOPR / LTH-SOPR) - 1 = (LTH Spent Price / STH Spent Price) - 1 (Note how the ratios invert with respect to cohort between SOPR and Spent Price variants)

We analyze the relationship between the LTH and STH components to identify divergences between their spending behaviors. It is uncommon for the LTH cohort to spend coins with a higher average cost basis (lower profit multiple) than their sister STH cohort. However, such events have historically occurred during deep bear market capitulation events, where even the strongest hands are purged from the market. Conversely, during strong bullish impulses, the profit multiple for LTHs is larger than for STHs, suggesting a originating lower cost of acquisition for LTHs vs STHs.

The STH-to-LTH SOPR Ratio constructs an oscillator which thus compares the realized profit multiple (SOPR) between the LTH and the STH cohorts.

This metric can be considered within the following the interpretation framework:

• Negative Values in red indicate that the average realized profit multiple for the STH cohort is lower than that of the LTH cohort. This is the typical condition in bull markets where longer term investors enjoy high profit multiples.

• Positive Values in blue indicate that the average realized profit multiple for the STH cohort is higher than that of the LTH cohort. This is the typical condition in late stage bear markets, where LTHs comprise cycle top buyers, whom are underwater on their holdings.

Coined by

Glassnode in The Week On-chain, Week 24 2022 Newsletter