Definition. This chart presents Short-Term Holder variants of two classic and widely recognized on-chain metrics: the Realized Price, and its derivative the MVRV Ratio. The STH cost basis is shown in pink against spot price (black), with the STH-MVRV unrealized profit/loss plotted as columns (orange in profit, red in loss).

• STH Realized Price is the average price of the Short-Term Holder BTC supply, valued at the day each coin last transacted on-chain. This is often considered the 'on-chain cost basis' of this cohort.

• STH MVRV Ratio is the ratio between the market value (MV, spot price) and the Realized value (RV, realized price) for the Short-Term Holder cohort. This allows for a visualization of Bitcoin market cycles, and the unrealized profitability of this cohort.

Technical. The cohort covers coins moved within the last 155 days, held outside exchange reserves:

• STH Realized Price = Spot Price / STH-MVRV
• Columns plot STH-MVRV - 1 (the cohort's average unrealized PnL), orange when positive and red when negative

Interpretation. MVRV is an oscillator measuring the average Unrealized Profit/Loss multiple held by Bitcoin Short-Term Holders, calculated as Avg Unrealized PnL = MVRV - 1:

• MVRV value of 2.0 means the current price is 2x the cohort avg cost basis (STH BTC holder is up 2x).

• MVRV value of 1.0 means the current price is equal to the cohort avg cost basis (STH BTC holder is at break-even).

• MVRV value of 0.85 means the current price is -15% below the cohort avg cost basis (STH BTC holder is underwater by -15%).

💡 Hint: Extreme MVRV values to the upside, and downside can help to identify periods where the market is overheated, or undervalued, and where investor profitability has reached a large deviation from the mean (Realized Price). Because Short-Term Holders hold recently moved coins, their cost basis tracks price closely, and the STH-MVRV oscillates around 1.0 — its break-even level has historically acted as support in uptrends and resistance in downtrends.

Notes. Built from STH-MVRV and Realized Price. See the Long-Term Holder counterpart, the combined Long/Short-Term On-chain Cost Basis, and the STH Cost Basis Model.