Description
Definition. This chart presents an Adjusted MVRV Ratio (orange) alongside the standard MVRV Ratio (blue), with the corresponding Adjusted Realized Price (orange-red), standard Realized Price (blue) and spot price (grey). The adjusted variant discounts deeply dormant, likely-lost supply — coins that last moved more than 7 years ago — from both sides of the ratio.
Technical. The adjustment removes "inert" supply and an estimate of the realized value it carries:
MVRV = Spot Price / Realized PriceInert Supply = Supply Last Active 7y-10y + Supply Last Active > 10yInert Realized Cap = cumsum(daily increase in Inert Supply x Price 7 years prior)— as coins age into the inert bands, they are removed at the price at which they entered their dormancy windowAdjusted MVRV = (Circulating Supply - Inert Supply) x Spot Price / (Realized Cap - Inert Realized Cap)Adjusted Realized Price = (Realized Cap - Inert Realized Cap) / (Circulating Supply - Inert Supply)
Interpretation. Coins dormant for over 7 years are increasingly likely to be lost (e.g. early-era coins with no owner) or held with near-permanent conviction, and they carry a very low acquisition cost. Including them depresses the aggregate cost basis and inflates measured unrealized profit. The adjusted variant instead expresses the profitability of the economically active portion of the supply: its realized price sits above the standard model, and its MVRV runs correspondingly lower. Comparing the two shows how much of the market's apparent unrealized profit is attributable to old, immobile coins; the gap widens over time as more supply ages into dormancy. Extremes in the adjusted ratio carry the same overheated/undervalued reading as classic MVRV, but are calibrated to the supply that actually responds to price.
Notes. Built from Realized Cap, Realized Price, Supply Last Active 7y-10y, Supply Last Active >10y and Circulating Supply. The unadjusted view is charted in Realized Price and MVRV.