Definition. The LTH-SOPR Multiple is a tool to gauge the momentum and profitability of Long-Term Holder spending on-chain. LTH-SOPR reflects the average profit (> 1) or loss (< 1) multiple on coins that are spent by Long-Term Holders; by taking the 30-day and 365-day moving averages, we can establish when a macro momentum shift is underway in the profitability of this cohort. The chart presents the following traces:

• LTH-SOPR in grey is the raw SOPR result.
• LTH-SOPR 30-DMA in blue is the faster monthly moving average.
• LTH-SOPR 365-DMA in pink is the slower yearly moving average.
• LTH-SOPR Multiple as green/red columns.

Technical. The multiple measures the spread between the two moving averages:

• LTH-SOPR Multiple = (30DMA - 365DMA) / 365DMA — plotted green when the 30-DMA is above the 365-DMA, red when below.

Interpretation.

• Positive Momentum is signaled when the 30-DMA is above the 365-DMA. The LTH-SOPR Multiple will be positive and green, indicating the LTH profitability is improving relative to the yearly average.

• Higher values indicate that LTHs are realizing significantly larger profits compared to their yearly average, and generally align with peak bull market strength, but also indicate LTHs are taking large profits.

• Negative Momentum is signaled when the 30-DMA is below the 365-DMA. The LTH-SOPR Multiple will be negative and red, indicating the LTH profitability is deteriorating relative to the yearly average.

• Lower values indicate that LTHs are realizing significantly larger losses compared to their yearly average, and generally align with deep bears and investor capitulations.

Notes. Coined by Glassnode in The Week On-chain, Week 30, 2022. Built from LTH-SOPR. See also the Long-Term Holder Realized Profit / Loss Ratio Momentum and the Short-to-Long-Term SOPR Ratio.