Definition. A single-panel summary of eight bear-recovery conditions drawn from pricing, network activity, profitability and supply. The black line tracks the share of the eight that are currently satisfied, and the shaded price bands mark the stretches where at least five, or all eight, hold at once.

Technical. Price is the grey log-scaled line. Eight boolean conditions are evaluated daily and averaged into Condition Sum:

• Pricing — Price > Realized Price and Price > sma(Price, 200)
• On-chain activity — sma(New Addresses, 30) > sma(New Addresses, 365) and Fee Revenue 2yr Z-Score > 0
• Profitability — aSOPR > 1 and Realized P/L Ratio > 1
• Supply — percent_change(RHODL Ratio / sma(RHODL Ratio, 365), 90) > 0 and diff(Supply in Profit, 30) > 0

Four stepped bars on the right axis report the pairs, and each lights only when both of its conditions hold: pricing (green, drawn at height 1.0), on-chain activity (yellow, 0.75), profitability (blue, 0.5) and supply (pink, 0.25). Pale cyan price columns mark days where Condition Sum x 8 >= 5; the deeper indigo columns mark days where all eight are met. The eight source series are loaded on the workbench but hidden.

Interpretation. No single on-chain condition marks the end of a bear market cleanly — each one whipsaws on its own, and each covers only one facet of the market. Scoring them together trades precision at the exact low for robustness: the score climbs as pricing, activity, profitability and supply conditions come back one after another, and the ordering itself is informative. Pricing conditions typically recover first, since they only require spot to reclaim two long-horizon averages; profitability follows as sellers exhaust; the supply and activity conditions are the slowest, because they need sustained rather than momentary improvement. Readings of five or more sustained over weeks have historically described the transition out of a bear rather than a relief rally, while brief spikes to five that immediately fall back have not.

Notes. Every condition has a dedicated chart elsewhere on this dashboard, where the same threshold is plotted against its underlying metric. Built from Price, Realized Price, New Addresses, Miner Revenue from Fees, aSOPR, Realized P/L Ratio, RHODL Ratio and Supply in Profit.