Definition. Tracks Net Unrealized Profit/Loss — the aggregate paper profit of the network as a share of market cap — against its four-year statistical range, expressed as a risk band beneath price.

Technical. NUPL is compared to its 1,400-day (roughly four-year) moving average and the ±1 standard deviation channel around it. Very High Risk prints above the +1σ band, High Risk between the mean and +1σ, Low Risk between −1σ and the mean, and Very Low Risk below −1σ.

Interpretation. NUPL is a direct measure of how much unrealized gain the market is sitting on, and therefore of how much selling pressure is latent in the supply. Sustained readings above the upper band mark the euphoria phase of a cycle; readings below the lower band mark the periods of aggregate loss that accompany bear market lows.