Definition. Compares how abnormally large short-term holder profit-taking and loss-taking are relative to their own recent norms, expressed as opposing z-scores.

Technical. Entity-adjusted short-term holder realized profit and realized loss are each smoothed with a 3-day EMA and converted to a z-score against their trailing 90-day mean and standard deviation. The loss series is inverted so it plots downwards, and reference lines sit at ±2 standard deviations. Very High Risk prints when profit-taking exceeds +2σ, High Risk between the 90-day mean and +2σ, Low Risk when profit-taking runs below its 90-day mean, and Very Low Risk when loss-taking exceeds 2σ below.

Interpretation. Profit-taking two standard deviations above its 90-day norm identifies the bursts of sell-side pressure that cluster around local and cycle highs. The mirrored loss extreme identifies capitulation events. Because both are measured against a rolling 90-day baseline, the indicator adapts to changing market scale rather than fixed dollar thresholds.