Definition. Bitcoin's completed cycle drawdowns set side by side, together with the counter-trend rallies that occurred inside them. Each line rebases the daily close to 1.0 at a cycle top and traces its path down to the cycle low, so the depth and duration of each decline compare directly. Each column series measures, for every day of the same window, how far price has risen above the lowest close recorded so far in that drawdown.

Technical. The rebased lines are subset() of the daily close between a cycle top and the following cycle low, divided by value_at() on the top date. The rally columns evaluate to price divided by its running minimum, less one: they read 0% at the cycle top, reset to 0% on every new cycle low, and rise as price recovers from the most recent low. Windows follow the house cycle dates: 2011-06-08 to 2011-11-18, 2013-11-30 to 2015-01-14, 2017-12-16 to 2018-12-16, 2019-06-26 to 2020-03-12 and 2021-11-08 to 2022-11-22. Horizontal guides mark rally magnitudes of +10%, +23.6%, +38.2%, +50% and +61.8%, and a +100% line sets the axis ceiling. Price is shown in grey behind the cycle paths.

Interpretation. No Bitcoin drawdown has declined in a straight line. The largest counter-trend rally reached +79% in 2011, +84% in 2014, +68% in 2018, +56% in the 2020 correction and +36% in 2022, each large enough in isolation to resemble a trend reversal while the drawdown was still incomplete. Total decline has moderated across the sample, from -93% in 2011 to -76% in 2022, and the largest rally within a drawdown has compressed alongside it. Because the column series resets at every new low, a high reading describes only the size of the current advance off the running low and does not by itself separate a counter-trend rally from the start of a recovery.

Notes. The 2019 to 2020 window is an intra-cycle correction rather than a cycle bear market: its starting high of $13,003 sat well below the December 2017 all-time high, and its $4,860 low held above the December 2018 cycle low of $3,237. It is included for comparison and labelled accordingly. The mirror image of this chart, drawdowns inside completed bull markets, is shown in Bull Market Correction Drawdowns. See also Price Performance Since Cycle ATH.