Definition. Compares the cost basis of short-term holders who are spending against the cost basis of those still holding, as a read on whether recent buyers are acting with or against the trend.

Technical. All inputs are hourly. The spending cost basis is a 30-day SMA of Price ÷ STH-SOPR; the holding cost basis is a 30-day SMA of Price ÷ STH-MVRV. The STH Delta Ratio is a 12-day SMA of (1 ÷ STH-SOPR) − (1 ÷ STH-MVRV), which expresses the gap between the two as a fraction of price. Market realized price is plotted for reference.

Interpretation. When the spending cost basis sits above the holding cost basis, the coins being moved were bought at higher prices than those being held — recent buyers are selling into weakness. The reverse indicates spending out of profit while the cohort's held supply remains below market. The Delta Ratio compresses toward zero when the two cohorts converge, which tends to occur around trend transitions.